Is Luck Real?
Let’s get something straight: I don’t believe in fairy dust. I don’t think the universe is handing out favors based on good behavior or birthday wishes.
But I do believe in luck.
Just not the kind most people think.
When people say “He got lucky,” it’s often said with a shrug. Like life is a roulette wheel and the ball just happened to land in the right place for someone else.
But that’s a cheap take. And it misses the deeper, more interesting truth:
Luck is real—but it’s not random.
It’s a function of exposure. Curiosity. Persistence. Pattern recognition. Reputation. Action.
It’s something you can invite.
As I was doing research for my book, I explored (way too many…) perspectives on luck: scientific studies, anecdotes from friends, stories on lottery winners and much, much more to see if I could uncover the truth about luck.
The 4 Types of Luck
A while back I came across this breakdown of luck from Dr. James Austin (popularized by Naval Ravikant), and it’s stuck with me:
Blind Luck – Pure randomness. A lottery ticket. Lightning strike.
Luck Through Motion – The more you try, the more “chances” you get. Start more companies, meet more people, write more posts—luck has more surface area to stick to.
Luck from Persistence – You’re so committed to your craft or niche that luck finds you. You’ve earned a reputation. You get the call others don’t.
Luck from Unique Insight – You see things others don’t. You connect dots others overlook. This is the rarest form—but also the one you can cultivate by thinking deeply, exploring broadly, and staying relentlessly curious.
If you’re building something—especially something that matters—you want to be operating in types 2, 3, and 4 all the time.
Taleb, Serendipity, and the Myth of Control
Nassim Taleb calls it “optionality.” You can’t predict which door will open, but you can design your life so that doors are constantly within reach—and you’re ready when one finally swings open.
Optionality means:
Taking asymmetric bets (small downside, big upside)
Saying yes more than you say no (but not indiscriminately)
Optimizing for exposure to opportunity, not just efficiency
This is also what “serendipity” really is. Not magic. Not fate. Just an environment where unexpected upside is allowed to happen.
Privilege, Platform, and the Role of Power
We need to be honest: not everyone gets the same playing field.
Some people are born on third base. Some of us had to build the stadium first.
Luck is shaped by privilege—race, gender, money, geography, connections. It’s real. And ignoring it is naïve.
But what’s also real is what you do with what you have.
Whatever platform you’re standing on—however shaky or solid—you can use it. You can build something. And if you’re already in a position of power or influence, the question becomes: how are you creating luck for others, not just yourself?
Designing a Lucky Life
So—what does it look like to design for luck?
It means you:
Follow what energizes you, even when there’s no clear outcome
Build relationships before you need them
Share your work, even when it’s unfinished
Make peace with rejection, discomfort, and obscurity
Keep moving—especially when you want to stop
Over time, something weird happens.
People start calling you lucky.
Final Thought
The truth is, I’ve been lucky. In ways that were totally out of my control.
And in ways I fought like hell to earn.
So is luck real?
Yes. But it’s not a gift. It’s a design problem.
And it’s one we’re all capable of solving—if we’re willing to do the work.
I was so fascinated by this topic that I wrote a book about it! “Luck By Design,” explores the concept of luck as not merely random chance but as something that can be understood and influenced. Recognizing luck in both personal and professional realms allows individuals to leverage opportunities to their advantage.
The book blends science and storytelling to illustrate the power of embracing serendipity in various aspects of life, offering practical tips for cultivating a mindset that seeks out lucky opportunities.